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Research

Research interest

  • Applied econometrics. Time series
  • Applied Macroeconomics
  • Spanish Economy
  • International Economy
  • Exchange rates and Monetary integration
  • Public Economy
  • Monetary policy and inflation
  • Business cycles
  • Heterogeneous growth
  • Trends in Global Warming

Journals

  • "Trends in distributional characteristics: Existence of global warming", with Jesús Gonzalo, 2018, Journal of Econometrics (forthcoming).
  • Whatever it takes” to resolve the European sovereign debt crisis? Bond pricing regime switches and monetary policy effects “, with Antonio Afonso, Michael Arghyrou and Alexandros Kontonikas, 2018, Journal of International Money and Finance 86, 1-30 .
  • “The Great Recession. Worse than ever?”, with Máximo Camacho and Gabriel Pérez-Quiros, 2018, Revista de Economía Aplicada 76, 73-100 . (data_codes)
  • “Great Moderation and Great Recession: From plain sailing to stormy seas?”, with Ana Gómez-Loscos and Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, 2018 International Economic Review (forthcoming).
  • “Clustering bussiness cycles”, with Ana Gómez-Loscos and Eduardo Bandrés, 2018; Economics Letters 162, 171-176.
  • "Dissecting US recoveries", with Ana Gómez-Loscos and Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, 2017; Economics Letters 154, 59-63.
  • "Testing the convergence hypothesis for OECD countries: a reappraisal", with Isabel Sanz, 2017, Economics Ejournal No. 2017-4. March 14, 2017.
  • "Structural Breaks, Inflation and Interest Rates. Evidence from the G7 Countries”, with Jesús Clemente, Marcelo Reyes and Antonio Montañés, 2017, Econometrics, 5(11).
  • “GDP growth and oil prices: A long story?”, with Ana Gómez-Loscos y Antonio Montañés, 2017, Econometrics, 4(4).
  • "Gone with the euro. The peripheral peseta and its purchasing power parity (1870-1998)”, with José María Serrano y Marcela Sabaté, 2016, Revista de Historia Económica/ Journal of the Iberian and Latin American Economic History 35, 207-239.
  • “Un ciclo económico en Europa”, with Eduardo Bandrés and Ana Gómez-Loscos, 2017, Cuadernos de información Económica, Funcas.
  • "Lost in intervention. The Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect on the peseta/dollar real exchange rate (1870-1998)", with Marcela Sabaté and José María Serrano Sanz, 2015, Applied Economics Letters 23(14), 1012-1017.
  • “Bounds, breaks and unit root tests”, with Josep Lluis Carrion, 2015, Journal of Time Series Analysis 37(2), 165-181. Complementary material. Matlab code.
  •  “Model selection, uncertainty and the PPP puzzle”, with Laura Mayoral, 2015,  Oxford Economics Papers 67(3), 614-633.
  • "The failure to predict the Great Recession. A view through the role of credit" , with Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, Journal of the European Economic Association (en prensa).
  • "Oil price shocks and the US economy: What makes the latest oil price episode different?" with Ana Gómez-Loscos, International Economic Letters (en prensa).
  • "Constraining fiscal dominance. The case of Spain, 1874-1998", with Marcela Sabaté and Regina Escario, European Review of Economic History (en prensa).
  • “Cyclical properties of Spanish Defence Expenditures”, with Noelia Cámara and Claudia Pérez-Fornies, 2014, Defence and Peace Economics 25(1), 7-22.
  • “GLS based unit root tests for bounded processes”, with Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre, 2013, Economic Letters 120 (2), 184-187. Matlab code.
  • “Long-run fiscal dominance in Argentina: 1875-1990”, with Isabel Sanz and Marcela Sabaté, 2012, Financial History Review, (forthcoming).
  • "Comparing globalizations", with Noelia Cámara and Marcela Sabaté, 2012, The Empirical Economic Letters, (forthcoming).
  • “Cyclical properties of Spanish Defence Expenditures”, with Noelia Cámara and Claudia Pérez-Fornies, 2012, Defence and Peace Economics, (forthcoming).
  • “Nato Defence Expenditure: A Statistical Compendiun (1960-2007), with Claudia Pérez-Fornies and Eva Pardos, 2012, Cuadernos Aragoneses de Economía, 22, 65-84.
  • "Aggregate real exchange rate persistence through the lens of sectoral data”, with Laura Mayoral, 2011, Journal of Monetary Economics 58, 290-304.
  • "Economic growth, inflation and oil shocks: are the 1970s coming back?”, with Ana Gómez-Loscos with Antonio Montañés, 2012, Applied Economics 44, 4575-4589.
  • "The impact of oil shocks on the Spanish Economy", with Ana Gómez-Loscos and Antonio Montañés, 2011, Energy Economics 33, 1070-1081
  • Cycles inside cycles. Spanish Regional Aggregation", with Ana Gómez-Loscos and Antonio Montañés, 2011, SERIES 3(4), 423-456.
  • “Trade Openness and Public Expenditure. The Spanish Case, 1960-2000, with Estela Sáenz and Marcela Sabaté, 2011, Public Choice (forthcoming).
  •  “The single monetary policy and domestic macro-fundamentals: Evidence from Spain”, with Michael Arghyrou, 2011, Journal of Policy Modelling (forthcoming).
  • ¿Condiciona la apertura exterior el tamaño del sector público? Un panorama, with Estela Sáenz and Marcela Sabaté, 2011, Hacienda Pública (forthcoming).
  • “Multicointegration, Seigniorage and Fiscal Sustainability. Spain 1874-1998, with Regina Escario and Marcela Sabaté, 2011, Journal of Policy Modelling (en prensa).
  • “Change in the persistence of the real exchange rates”, with Sergio Gabás and Antonio Montañes, Applied Economic Letters 18, 189-192, 2011.
  • "Monetary Shadow of Deficit. Spain 1874-1998", with Regina Escario and Marcela Sabaté", Investigaciones de Historia Económica 19, 2010.
  • “Exchange rate regimes and prices. The cases of Italy, Spain and United Kingdom (1874-1998)”, with Monia Ben-Kaabia and Marcela Sabaté, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 19, 447-489, 2009.
  • “European Monetary Integration and Persistence of Real Exchange Rates” with Ana Belen Gracia, Financial Research Letters 4, 242-249, 2009.
  •  “Aggregation is not the solution: the PPP puzzle strikes back”, with Laura Mayoral, Journal of Applied Econometrics 24, 875-894, 2009.
  • "La medición del riesgo externo. Un estudio aplicado para el caso español, 1960-2000”, with Estela Saenz and Marcela Sabaté, Estudios de Economía Aplicada 27, 575-591, 2009.
  • “Measuging the external risk in the United Kingdom, with Estela Sáenz and Marcela Sabaté, Economic Bulletin 29, 1182-1189, 2009.
  • “Una mirada ingenua sobre las series del sector exterior, 1870-2000”, with José María Serrano and Marcela Sabaté, Revista de Historia Económica. Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History (2.ª epoca) 1, 83-107, 2008.
  • "The Persistence of Inflation in OECD Countries: A Fractionally Integrated Approach”, with Laura Mayoral, International Journal of Central Banking 2, 51-104, 2006.
  • "The effects of macroeconomic stability on foreign trade. An analysis for Spain, 1986-2000”, with Ana Belén Gracia and José María Serrano, Applied Economics 38, 2021-2036, 2006.
  • "Does Fiscal Policy Influence Monetary Policy? The Case of Spain 1874-1935", with Marcela Sabaté and Regina Escario, Explorations in Economics History 43, 309-331, 2006.
  • “The Welfare State and Economic Growth in Europe” with Eduardo Bandrés and Alain Cuenca, Public Finance/Finances Publiques 54 (3-4), 1-38, 1999/2006.
  • "The Spanish peseta versus the pound sterling, the French franc and the US dollar (1870-1935).  A long floating experience”, with Marcela Sabaté and José María Serrano, Applied Financial Economics Letters 2, 95-99, 2005.
  • "What causes the Spanish Hidden Economy?, with José María Serrano, Applied Financial Economics Letters 3, 143-150, 2005.
  • "The European Union currencies and the US dollar: From post-Bretton-Woods to the euro”, with Antonio Montañes and Marcelo Reyes, Journal of International Money and Finance 23, 1109-1136, 2004.
  • "The European Periphery in the Era of the Gold Standard: the Case of the Spanish Peseta and the Pound Sterling from 1870 to 1935”, with Marcela Sabaté, Open Economic Review 15, 63-85, 2004.
  • "Structural breaks and their trace in the memory: Inflation rate series in the long-run” with José María Serrano and Marcela Sabaté, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 14, 117-134, 2004.
  • “A long-run analysis of defence spending in the NATO countries (1960-1999)” with Eva Párdos and Claudia Pérez Fornies, Defence and Peace Economics 15, 231-249, 2004.
  • "Gasto en Defensa y renta en los países de la Alianza Atlántica”, with Eva Párdos and Claudia Pérez Fornies, Hacienda Pública Española, 170, 137-153, 2004.
  • "PPP and structural breaks. The peseta-sterling rate, 50 years of a floating regime” with Marcela Sabaté, Journal of International Money and Finance, 2003, 22(5), 613-627.
  • "El valor de la peseta” with Marcela Sabaté, Papeles y Memorias de la Real Academia de Ciencias Morales y Políticas, 2002.
  • "La inflación en España en el siglo XX”, with Marcela Sabaté, Papeles de Economía Española, 2001.
  • "The hidden economy in Spain. A Monetary Estimation, 1964-1998”, with José María Serrano Sanz, Empirical Economics 27, 499-527, 2002.
  • "The Defence Spending in Spain: a long-run approach”, with Antonio Montañes, Defence and Peace Economics 12, 369-393, 2001.
  • "Economic growth and the long run balance of payments constraint in Spain", with José María Serrano Sanz and Marcela Sabaté Sort, Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 8.4, 395-424, 1999.
  • "Tipo de cambio y protección. La peseta al margen del patrón oro, 1883-1931", with José María Serrano Sanz and Marcela Sabaté Sort, Revista de Historia Industrial 13, 83-112, 1998.
  • "La ética de la igualdad. Consideraciones sobre los fundamentos contractuales de la redistribución de la renta”, with Eduardo Bandrés , Ekonomiaz 40, 11-41, 1998.
  • "La renta del turismo en las comarcas del Pirineo oscense”, with Alain Cuenca, Cuadernos Aragoneses de Economía 2.ª época 4.1, 119-128, 1994.
  • "Un modelo sobre los determinantes del crecimiento del gasto público en España (1964-1990)", Revista de Economía Aplicada 2, 31-66, 1993.
  • "La importancia del turismo”, Papeles de Economía Española: Economía de las Comunidades Autónomas 10, 301-303, 1991.
  • “¿Por qué crece el gasto público?: Un modelo de oferta and demanda aplicado al caso español (1962-1986)”, Cuadernos Aragoneses de Economía 14, 119-148, 1990.

Books

  • “Ciclos económicos regionales en España. El caso de Andalucía”, with Antonio Montañes and Ana Gómez Loscos en Ensayos sobre ciclos económicos. Una perspectiva actual. Servicio de Estudios Cajasol, 96-119, 2009.
  •  “PPP and Black Market Exchange Rates (1939-1959): The Experience of the Spanish Peseta”, with Marcela Sabaté and José Maria Serrano, International Business and Finance Issues, NovaPublishers, 277-304, 2007.
  • “Regional macroeconomic behaviour: Is there a common Spanish cycle driving activity”, with Ana Gómez and Antonio Montañés, Papers and Proceedings: Global Regions? Annual conference of Regional Studies Association, London, 2006.
  • Las ayudas comunitarias en Aragón, with José Antonio Herce, Antonio Montañés and Simón Sosvilla. CESA, Zaragoza, 2001.
  • “Cambio, Precios, Balanza y Expectativas”, with Marcela Sabaté and José María Serrano.In Sudriá, C. and Tirado, D., Peseta y protección. Comercio Exterior, Moneda y Crecimiento Económico en la España de la Restauración, 143-156, Ediciones de la Universidad de Barcelona, Barcelona, 2001.
  • La determinación del tipo de cambio de la peseta (1883-1931). Una nota a propósito de Sardá with Marcela Sabaté Sort and José María Serrano Sanz, in Peseta y protección Estudios en Homenaje a Joan Sardá i Dexeus. Ediciones de la Universidad de Barcelona, 2001.
  • La peseta en la cultura de la estabilidad, in Del real al euro, Servicio de Estudios de la Caixa (editor), 2000.
  • “La modernización de los Estados de Bienestar en el Sur de Europa”, with Eduardo Bandrés, Alain Cuenca and Antonio Sánchez, Dimensiones de la Desigualdad, 89-149, Fundación Argentaria, Madrid, 1999.
  • Desigualdades territoriales en la economía sumergida, with José María Serrano, Eduardo Bandrés and Jaime Sanaú, Confederación de Empresarios de Aragón and el Instituto Aragonés de Fomento, Zaragoza, 1998.
  • “La peseta y el patrón oro. Un caso de la Paridad del Poder Adquisitivo”, with José María Serrano and Marcela Sabaté, in La peseta y el patrón de cambios en la España del siglo XIX.“La política monetaria y las fluctuaciones de la economía española en el siglo XIX. Homenaje a Joan Sardá y Dexeus”, Barcelona, 1998.
  • La economía política del gasto público en España (1964-1993), (1996), Madrid, Consejo Económico y Social, 1996.
  • Las Administraciones Públicas Centrales y la Economía Aragonesa. Una estimación de la balanza fiscal, with José María Serrano, Eduardo Bandrés, Ramón Barberán and Alain Cuenca, Consejo Económico y Social de Aragón and la Diputación General de Aragón, Zaragoza, 1995.

Other publications

Working papers

  • Whatever it takes” to resolve the European sovereign debt crisis? Bond pricing regime switches and monetary policy effects “, with Antonio Afonso, Michael Arghyrou and Alexandros Kontonikas, REM WP Series, ISEG Working Paper, Cardiff Working Paper and Cesifo series.
  • "Dissecting US recoveries”, with Ana Gómez-Loscos and Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, 2017; Working Paper CEPR 11997, Documento de Trabajo Banco de España, 1708.
    “Trends in distributional characteristics: Existence of global warming”, with Jesús Gonzalo, 2017, Documento de Trabajo Carlos III, 17-03.
  • "The Evolution of Regional Economic Interlinkages in Europe”, with Ana Gomez-Loscos and Danilo Leiva-León, 2017, Documento de Trabajo Banco de España, 1705.
  • "Regional Business Cycles Across Europe”, with Eduardo Bandrés and Ana Gómez-Loscos, 2017, Documento Ocasional Banco de España, 1702, Documento de Trabajo FUNCAS, 785.
  • "GDP growth and oil prices: A long story?”, with Ana Gómez-Loscos and Antonio Montañes, 2016, Documento de Trabajo Banco de España, 1625.
  • "Testing the Convergence Hypothesis for OECD Countries: A Reappraisal", with Isable Sanz, Economics, Discussion Paper 11-10, 2016 (http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/discussionpapers/2016-45).
  • “The Great Moderation in historical perspective. Is it that great?” with Ana Gómez-Loscos and Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, 2015, Working Paper CEPR DP10825, Documento de Trabajo Banco de España 1527.
  • “The two greatest. Great Recession vs. Great Moderation”, with Ana Gómez-Loscos and Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, 2014, Documento de Trabajo Banco de España, 1423, Working Paper CEPR DP10092.
  • Las previsiones económicas en España. Estudio comparativo del Panel de Funcas”, 2014, Documento de Trabajo FUNCAS, 749.
  • “La Gran Recesión en España en clave regional. Un análisis de ciclos económicos” with Eduardo Bandrés, 2013, Documento de Trabajo FUNCAS, 737.
  • “The failure to predict the Great Recession. The failure of academic economics? A view focusing on the role of credit” with Gabriel Pérez-Quiros, 2012, Documento de Trabajo Banco de España, 1240, Working Paper CEPR DP9269.
  • “El papel del crédito como predictor del ciclo económico”, with Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, Boletin Económico, Banco de España 34, 2012.
  • Cycles inside cycles. Spanish Regional Aggregation”, with Ana Gómez-Loscos and Antonio Montañés, WIFO Working Papers 390/2011.
  • “The impact of oil shocks on the Spanish economy”, with Ana Gómez Loscos and Antonio Montañes, Documento de trabajo, FUNCAS, 2010.
  • “Economic growth, inflation and oil shocks. Are the 1970s coming back?”, with Ana Gomez Loscos and Antonio Montañes, Discussion Paper on Applied Economics DPAE/10/01/, University of Oviedo, 2010.
  • “Vertical Specialization and Nonstationarities in International Trade Series”, Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper, 309, 2009.
  • "Goverment solvency or just pseudo-sustainability? A long-run multicointegration approach for Spain", with Regina Escario and Marcela Sabaté, DTECONZ 2009-07.
  • “Openness and the size of public sector in Spain, 1960-2000”, with Estela Saenz and Marcela Sabaté, DTECONZ 2009-06.
  • “Beating fiscal dominance. The case of Spain, 1874-1998”, with Marcela Sabaté and Regina Escario, DTECONZ 2008-08.
  • “The single monetary policy and domestic macro-fundamentals: Evidence from Spain”, with Michael Arghyrou, DTECONZ 2008-05, Discussion Papers Cardiff Business School.
  • “How many regional cycles are there in Spain? A MS-VAR approach”, with Ana Gómez and Antonio Montañés, Working Papers Fundear, research section, 2006/1.
  • “Unit roots, Levels Shifts and Purchasing Power Parity”, with Antonio Montañés and Marcelo Reyes, Computing in Economics and Finance, 208, 2002.

Blogs, Reports and other publications

  • "Un ciclo económico en Europa", with Eduardo Bandrés y Ana Gómez-Loscos, 2017, CIE, Funcas.
  • "Just one business cycle in Europe", con Eduardo Bandrés y Ana Gómez-Loscos, 2016, SEFO, vol. 15 (6).
  • “On the greatness of the great moderation”, with Ana Gómez-Loscos and Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, 2015, Voxeu, http://www.voxeu.org/article/greatness-great-moderation.
  • “Índice Fundear. Un sistema de indicadores sintéticos de coyuntura para la economía aragonesa”, with Antonio Montañés and Domingo Pérez, Documentos de Trabajo FUNDEAR 2003/2, 2003. Reports to the Goverment of Aragón.
  • “Análisis de Coyuntura, Series temporales and Desagregación de la Información: Aplicación al caso de la economía aragonesa”, with Antonio Montañés and José María Serrano, Documentos de Trabajo IAEST, 5, 2001. Reports to the Goverment of Aragon.

Work in progress

Papers under review

  • "The volatility decline in the US economy. A historical perspective” with Ana Gómez-Loscos and Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, 2018 (revised and resubmitted in Oxford Economics Papers).
  • “Trends in distributional characteristics: Existence of global warming”, with Jesús Gonzalo, 2017 (revised and resubmitted in Journal of Econometrics).
  • “The Evolution of Regional Economic Interlinkages in Europe”, with Ana Gomez-Loscos and Danilo Leiva-León, 2017.
  • “Business Cycle patters in European regions”, with Eduardo Bandrés and Ana Gómez-Loscos, 2017.
  • “Bias correction of long-run variance estimates for bounded time series”, with Josep Lluis Carrion-i-Silvestre and Antonio Montañés.

Work in progress

  • “Low inflation and co-movements in advanced economies”, with Ana Gómez-Loscos and L.J Alvarez.
  • “Explaining regional clusters in Europe”, with Eduardo Bandrés and Ana Gómez-Loscos.
  • “Recovery patterns and Great Moderation”, with Ana Gómez-Loscos and Gabriel Pérez-Quiros.
  • “Secular Stagnation. Myth or reality?”, with Ana Gómez-Loscos and Gabriel Pérez-Quiros.
  • “Predictive power of the macroeconomic imbalance indicators?”, with Ana Gómez-Loscos, Danilo Leiva-León and Gabriel Pérez-Quiros.
  • “Regional Spillovers in the European Union: What has change since the Euro?”with Ana Gómez-Loscos and Danilo Leiva-León.
  • “Estimating turning points using large data sets”, with Máximo Camacho and Ana Gómez-Loscos.
  • “Heterogeneity and reforms. Qualified economic growth”, with Laura Mayoral.
  • “Identification and forecast of trends in temperature”, with Jesús Gonzalo.
  • “Melting of the poles circles: is it different the north of the south?”, with Jesús Gonzalo.
  • “External imbalances and recoveries”, with Mariam Camarero, Cecilio Tamarit and Ana Gómez-Loscos.
  • “Multiple structural breaks in integrated series”, with José Lluis Carrion-i-Silvestre.
  • “Detecting multiple level breaks in bounded series”, with José Lluis Carrion-i-Silvestre.
     “What drives the Argentinean business cycle”, with Isabel Sanz.
  • “Credit shortages and limited liquidity in periphery EMU countries”, with Michael Arghyrou.
  • "A new approach for dating business cycles”, with Alfredo Cuesta.
  • "Reconsidering the structural stability of real exchange rates", with Sergio Gabas and Antonio Montañés.
  • "The incidence of tariff protection", with Eva Pardos and Marcela Sabaté.
  • "Common trends in trade", with Noelia Cámara and Marcela Sabaté.
  • "The hypothesis of compensation in Spain", with Marcela Sabaté and Estela Saenz.
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actualizada el 27/10/18